Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Rad-hard & space-grade siliconII · Space-grade solar & powerIII · Propulsion & propellantsIV · Laser comms & optical terminalsV · Atomic clocks & space PNTVI · Ground segment & direct-to-deviceVII · Launch & reusabilityVIII · In-space infrastructure & servicingIX · Earth observation & space dataX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
High-impact · next 30 days
- 2026-08-21SPCXSPCX lock-up first tranche release (~70 days post-IPO)
August 2026
- 21highPolicySPCXSPCX lock-up first tranche release (~70 days post-IPO)The first ~7% insider-share release under SpaceX's rolling lock-up adds float to a thin-float mega-cap, a direct supply event for the only listed name in this chokepoint.
- 20mediumEarningsSPCXSpaceX first post-IPO quarterly print (est.)The first audited public results force every wrapper holding SpaceX (DXYZ, XOVR, VCX) to re-anchor its largest mark to a real reported number, testing whether Starlink margins justify the ~$1.77T listing valuation.
December 2026
- 09mediumProgramSPCX full lock-up expiry (~180 days post-IPO)Full release of insider stock (excluding Musk's 366-day lock) is the largest float-expansion event for SPCX and a sentiment risk for the SpaceX-heavy wrappers that re-rated on the IPO.
December 2028
- 31mediumProgramGolden Dome space-based-interceptor capability demonstration deadlineThe $3.2B prototype awards require selected firms — including private K2 and Anduril plus SpaceX — to demonstrate orbital-interceptor capability by 2028, the milestone that converts private backlog into shipped hardware the wrappers will mark.