Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Rad-hard & space-grade siliconII · Space-grade solar & powerIII · Propulsion & propellantsIV · Laser comms & optical terminalsV · Atomic clocks & space PNTVI · Ground segment & direct-to-deviceVII · Launch & reusabilityVIII · In-space infrastructure & servicingIX · Earth observation & space dataX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
September 2026
- 30mediumProgramL3Harris space-propulsion (Rocketdyne/RL10) majority sale to AE Industrial expected close (2H 2026)Closing crystallizes L3Harris's retreat from the merchant launch-propulsion choke (RL10 to a 60%-owned 'Rocketdyne' entity), re-pricing who controls upper-stage engine supply for Vulcan/Atlas-class vehicles.
December 2026
- 09highPolicySPCXSpaceX 180-day IPO lockup full expirationFull unlock of pre-IPO shares expands SPCX's ~4.3% float and shifts price discovery from launch-monopoly scarcity to fundamentals, with potential supply pressure on the pure-play proxy.
- 31mediumProgramRKLBNeutron reusable medium-lift maiden launch (Q4 2026 window)First flight of a listed challenger's reusable medium-lift vehicle would, if successful, give the market its first credible second source to SpaceX in the launch chokepoint; a failure re-concentrates the narrative.
Past
- 2026-08-04Firefly Aerospace Q2 2026 earnings