Catalyst calendar
The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.
AllI · Rad-hard & space-grade siliconII · Space-grade solar & powerIII · Propulsion & propellantsIV · Laser comms & optical terminalsV · Atomic clocks & space PNTVI · Ground segment & direct-to-deviceVII · Launch & reusabilityVIII · In-space infrastructure & servicingIX · Earth observation & space dataX · Private giants & exposure vehicles
September 2026
- 14mediumEarningsPLPlanet Labs Q2 FY2027 earningsReads the EOCL-expansion revenue that began recognizing in January 2026 and tests whether the $906M backlog keeps compounding off the government anchor.
- 15mediumProgramASRHFAstroscale APS-R Space Force refueler launch to GEOFirst refueling of a US national-security asset and the first flight test of the RAFTI/Orbit Fab depot fueling-standard architecture that the whole refueling choke depends on.
- 30mediumProgramL3Harris space-propulsion (Rocketdyne/RL10) majority sale to AE Industrial expected close (2H 2026)Closing crystallizes L3Harris's retreat from the merchant launch-propulsion choke (RL10 to a 60%-owned 'Rocketdyne' entity), re-pricing who controls upper-stage engine supply for Vulcan/Atlas-class vehicles.
October 2026
- 31mediumProgramSATLSatellogic first AI-first constellation satellite launchFirst hardware milestone of the $30M fully-funded sovereign-defense constellation contract; slipping it would push full operational capability past H1 2027 and stall the asset-light challenger's revenue ramp.
November 2026
- 27highPolicyExpiry of China's suspension of germanium/gallium export ban to the USThe hard calendar date when Beijing's temporary export-ban suspension lapses, directly re-testing the substrate supply line for every Western space-cell maker.
December 2026
- 09highPolicySPCXSpaceX 180-day IPO lockup full expirationFull unlock of pre-IPO shares expands SPCX's ~4.3% float and shifts price discovery from launch-monopoly scarcity to fundamentals, with potential supply pressure on the pure-play proxy.
- 01mediumProgramSDA Tranche 3 Tracking Layer production milestones / next OCT demand waveThe $3.5B Tranche 3 award (72 satellites across LMT/RKLB/NOC/LHX) drives the next large optical-terminal procurement cycle, repricing qualified-supplier demand.
- 09mediumProgramSPCX full lock-up expiry (~180 days post-IPO)Full release of insider stock (excluding Musk's 366-day lock) is the largest float-expansion event for SPCX and a sentiment risk for the SpaceX-heavy wrappers that re-rated on the IPO.
- 31mediumProgramNRO additional Strategic Commercial Enhancements CSO awards (late 2026)The agency signaled further multi-phenomenology CSO awards for late 2026; each one re-ranks listed incumbents (PL, BKSY) against private newcomers and reprices the EO data chokepoint.
- 31mediumProgramRKLBNeutron reusable medium-lift maiden launch (Q4 2026 window)First flight of a listed challenger's reusable medium-lift vehicle would, if successful, give the market its first credible second source to SpaceX in the launch chokepoint; a failure re-concentrates the narrative.
- 31mediumProgramLHXExpected close of L3Harris / AE Industrial 'Rocketdyne' majority sale (H2 2026)On close, RL10 and in-space propulsion move to a 60%-AE-Industrial entity, structurally shrinking LHX's space-propulsion exposure and re-rating it toward missile SRMs.
December 2028
- 31mediumProgramGolden Dome space-based-interceptor capability demonstration deadlineThe $3.2B prototype awards require selected firms — including private K2 and Anduril plus SpaceX — to demonstrate orbital-interceptor capability by 2028, the milestone that converts private backlog into shipped hardware the wrappers will mark.
Past
- 2026-09-01SDA Tranche 2 Transport Layer (Alpha/Beta) launches begin
- 2026-08-2340th Annual Small Satellite Conference (SmallSat), Salt Lake City
- 2026-08-23Annual Small Satellite Conference (SmallSat 2026), Salt Lake City
- 2026-08-2340th Annual Small Satellite Conference (SmallSat 2026), Salt Lake City
- 2026-08-21SPCX lock-up first tranche release (~70 days post-IPO)
- 2026-08-20SpaceX first post-IPO quarterly print (est.)
- 2026-08-18Intuitive Machines Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-08-15Northrop Grumman / DARPA Mission Robotic Vehicle (RSGS) launch on Falcon 9
- 2026-08-13Gilat Satellite Networks Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-08-12Redwire Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-08-12Viasat Q1 fiscal 2027 earnings
- 2026-08-10AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-08-07CACI fiscal Q4/FY2026 results
- 2026-08-07Microchip Q1 FY2027 earnings
- 2026-08-06Rocket Lab Q2 2026 results
- 2026-08-06Rocket Lab Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-08-06Rocket Lab Q2 2026 earnings — first full quarter owning Mynaric/CONDOR
- 2026-08-06BlackSky Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-08-045N Plus Q2 2026 results
- 2026-08-04Firefly Aerospace Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-31Iridium PNT ASIC commercial availability (mid-2026)
- 2026-07-24Iridium Communications Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-23Teledyne Technologies Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-23STMicroelectronics Q2 2026 results
- 2026-07-23L3Harris Q2 2026 earnings (before open)
- 2026-07-21Texas Instruments Q2 2026 earnings
- 2026-07-09Frequency Electronics Q4/FY2026 earnings
- 2026-06-17AST SpaceMobile BlueBird 8/9/10 launch on Falcon 9