spacebottlenecks

Catalyst calendar

The repricing schedule is mostly public if you actually look at it.

AllI · Rad-hard & space-grade siliconII · Space-grade solar & powerIII · Propulsion & propellantsIV · Laser comms & optical terminalsV · Atomic clocks & space PNTVI · Ground segment & direct-to-deviceVII · Launch & reusabilityVIII · In-space infrastructure & servicingIX · Earth observation & space dataX · Private giants & exposure vehicles

High-impact · next 30 days

  • 2026-08-21SPCXSPCX lock-up first tranche release (~70 days post-IPO)

July 2026

  • 31mediumProgramIRDMIridium PNT ASIC commercial availability (mid-2026)The 8x8mm PNT ASIC reaching commercial release is the gating product for Iridium's alt-PNT service layer and its $100M-by-2030 PNT revenue target.

August 2026

  • 21highPolicySPCXSPCX lock-up first tranche release (~70 days post-IPO)The first ~7% insider-share release under SpaceX's rolling lock-up adds float to a thin-float mega-cap, a direct supply event for the only listed name in this chokepoint.
  • 04mediumEarningsFLYFirefly Aerospace Q2 2026 earningsFirst read on Alpha Flight 8 progress, Eclipse milestone revenue and backlog conversion — the test of whether the only other listed orbital launcher is shipping cadence, not just renders.
  • 04mediumEarningsFPLSF5N Plus Q2 2026 resultsFirst print to show whether AZUR space-cell capacity expansion and the new Utah germanium grant are flowing into Specialty Semiconductors revenue and margin.
  • 06mediumEarningsBKSYBlackSky Q2 2026 earningsFirst print to show whether the up-to-$160M of Q1 bookings and Gen-3 subscription ramp convert into the guided 50%+ recurring-revenue growth that underpins its EOCL/Luno anchor thesis.
  • 06mediumEarningsRKLBRocket Lab Q2 2026 earnings — first full quarter owning Mynaric/CONDORFirst print to show how the acquired CONDOR optical-terminal line is being scaled and whether integration is on track given Mynaric's prior production failures.
  • 06mediumEarningsRKLBRocket Lab Q2 2026 earningsLooks for Gauss thruster order intake and Archimedes engine qualification progress — the bridge from a 200-unit/year line to recognized propulsion backlog.
  • 06mediumEarningsRKLBRocket Lab Q2 2026 resultsWatch for any quantification of SolAero solar-cell contribution and CHIPS-funded capacity ramp, after solar drove the Q1 gross-margin beat.
  • 07mediumEarningsMCHPMicrochip Q1 FY2027 earningsAerospace-and-defense commentary is the only public window into Microchip's Space CSAC/timing demand, even though clocks are immaterial to the $4.7B consolidated business.
  • 07mediumEarningsCACICACI fiscal Q4/FY2026 resultsCACI is the only listed independent merchant OCT maker; commentary on CrossBeam volume production ramp and EST Phase 2 is the cleanest read on terminal-supply economics.
  • 10mediumEarningsASTSAST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 earningsFirst print after the April FCC commercial authorization will show gateway buildout progress and whether spectrum-to-service execution is on schedule.
  • 12mediumEarningsVSATViasat Q1 fiscal 2027 earningsUpdates teleport/ground-network backlog and the deleveraging trajectory that gates whether the ground-asset chokepoint value reaches equity holders.
  • 12mediumEarningsRDWRedwire Q2 2026 earningsTests whether orbital servicing/assembly (OSAM, SPIDER) revenue is growing or whether the story is increasingly Edge Autonomy drones — the key space-washing read on this name.
  • 13mediumEarningsGILTGilat Satellite Networks Q2 2026 earningsTests whether SkyEdge IV gateway/baseband bookings keep compounding against the $500-520M FY2026 guide - the cleanest read on funded ground-segment demand.
  • 15mediumProgramNOCNorthrop Grumman / DARPA Mission Robotic Vehicle (RSGS) launch on Falcon 9First US robotic GEO servicer to fly; a successful launch and deployment converts the in-space servicing bench from funded program to demonstrated capability.
  • 18mediumEarningsLUNRIntuitive Machines Q2 2026 earningsWatch for Orbital Transfer Vehicle progress past CDR toward a funded flight order, which would move OTV from optionality to backlog in the orbital-transfer leg of the chokepoint.
  • 20mediumEarningsSPCXSpaceX first post-IPO quarterly print (est.)The first audited public results force every wrapper holding SpaceX (DXYZ, XOVR, VCX) to re-anchor its largest mark to a real reported number, testing whether Starlink margins justify the ~$1.77T listing valuation.
  • 23lowConference40th Annual Small Satellite Conference (SmallSat 2026), Salt Lake CityPrimary venue where electric-propulsion merchants and constellation buyers set thruster procurement terms — the demand-side signal for the tightest node in this chokepoint.
  • 23lowConferenceAnnual Small Satellite Conference (SmallSat 2026), Salt Lake CityPrimary venue where rad-hard vs. rad-tolerant component choices for new constellations get disclosed — design wins here signal whose qualified silicon flies.
  • 23lowConference40th Annual Small Satellite Conference (SmallSat), Salt Lake CityPrimary forum where constellation operators and cell/array suppliers signal power-system roadmaps and capacity needs that stress the germanium-cell chokepoint.

September 2026

  • 01mediumProgramSDA Tranche 2 Transport Layer (Alpha/Beta) launches beginFirst T2TL launches put three-to-four optical terminals per satellite into orbit, validating qualified suppliers' delivery cadence and the cross-vendor link standard at scale.
  • 14mediumEarningsPLPlanet Labs Q2 FY2027 earningsReads the EOCL-expansion revenue that began recognizing in January 2026 and tests whether the $906M backlog keeps compounding off the government anchor.
  • 15mediumProgramASRHFAstroscale APS-R Space Force refueler launch to GEOFirst refueling of a US national-security asset and the first flight test of the RAFTI/Orbit Fab depot fueling-standard architecture that the whole refueling choke depends on.
  • 30mediumProgramL3Harris space-propulsion (Rocketdyne/RL10) majority sale to AE Industrial expected close (2H 2026)Closing crystallizes L3Harris's retreat from the merchant launch-propulsion choke (RL10 to a 60%-owned 'Rocketdyne' entity), re-pricing who controls upper-stage engine supply for Vulcan/Atlas-class vehicles.

October 2026

  • 31mediumProgramSATLSatellogic first AI-first constellation satellite launchFirst hardware milestone of the $30M fully-funded sovereign-defense constellation contract; slipping it would push full operational capability past H1 2027 and stall the asset-light challenger's revenue ramp.

November 2026

  • 27highPolicyExpiry of China's suspension of germanium/gallium export ban to the USThe hard calendar date when Beijing's temporary export-ban suspension lapses, directly re-testing the substrate supply line for every Western space-cell maker.

December 2026

  • 09highPolicySPCXSpaceX 180-day IPO lockup full expirationFull unlock of pre-IPO shares expands SPCX's ~4.3% float and shifts price discovery from launch-monopoly scarcity to fundamentals, with potential supply pressure on the pure-play proxy.
  • 01mediumProgramSDA Tranche 3 Tracking Layer production milestones / next OCT demand waveThe $3.5B Tranche 3 award (72 satellites across LMT/RKLB/NOC/LHX) drives the next large optical-terminal procurement cycle, repricing qualified-supplier demand.
  • 09mediumProgramSPCX full lock-up expiry (~180 days post-IPO)Full release of insider stock (excluding Musk's 366-day lock) is the largest float-expansion event for SPCX and a sentiment risk for the SpaceX-heavy wrappers that re-rated on the IPO.
  • 31mediumProgramNRO additional Strategic Commercial Enhancements CSO awards (late 2026)The agency signaled further multi-phenomenology CSO awards for late 2026; each one re-ranks listed incumbents (PL, BKSY) against private newcomers and reprices the EO data chokepoint.
  • 31mediumProgramRKLBNeutron reusable medium-lift maiden launch (Q4 2026 window)First flight of a listed challenger's reusable medium-lift vehicle would, if successful, give the market its first credible second source to SpaceX in the launch chokepoint; a failure re-concentrates the narrative.
  • 31mediumProgramLHXExpected close of L3Harris / AE Industrial 'Rocketdyne' majority sale (H2 2026)On close, RL10 and in-space propulsion move to a 60%-AE-Industrial entity, structurally shrinking LHX's space-propulsion exposure and re-rating it toward missile SRMs.

December 2028

  • 31mediumProgramGolden Dome space-based-interceptor capability demonstration deadlineThe $3.2B prototype awards require selected firms — including private K2 and Anduril plus SpaceX — to demonstrate orbital-interceptor capability by 2028, the milestone that converts private backlog into shipped hardware the wrappers will mark.

Past

  • 2026-07-24Iridium Communications Q2 2026 earnings
  • 2026-07-23Teledyne Technologies Q2 2026 earnings
  • 2026-07-23STMicroelectronics Q2 2026 results
  • 2026-07-23L3Harris Q2 2026 earnings (before open)
  • 2026-07-21Texas Instruments Q2 2026 earnings
  • 2026-07-09Frequency Electronics Q4/FY2026 earnings
  • 2026-06-17AST SpaceMobile BlueBird 8/9/10 launch on Falcon 9