VI
Ground segment & direct-to-device
Constellations are worthless without gateways, phased arrays and spectrum; the ground layer is consolidating fast.
The cheapest way to break a constellation isn't in orbit — it's on the ground. Every LEO or D2D network resolves to the same three physical scarcities: gateway/teleport real estate with feeder-link spectrum, the baseband/modem fabric that turns RF into routable bits, and the licensed terrestrial spectrum a phone can actually receive. This layer is consolidating fast, and unlike launch — where SpaceX is simply the market, now public as SPCX after its June 12 debut — the ground layer still has independent listed owners of the bottleneck.
Who owns it
The gateway/baseband fabric has a real merchant leader: Gilat's SkyEdge IV is the virtualized, 5G-NTN-ready ground platform that multiple operators are buying — a $40M virtualized-platform award in June 2025, a separate $42M operator order in October 2025, plus a $10M+ Wavestream amplifier order in February 2026 to feed a LEO constellation's gateway sites. Teleport and feeder-link real estate concentrates in Viasat, which owns a global ground network and exited FY2026 with $4.07B backlog on $4.6B revenue, and in SES, which closed its Intelsat acquisition in July 2025 and now runs ~120 satellites across an extensive GEO/MEO ground footprint. The spectrum half of the chokepoint sits with the D2D pure-plays: AST SpaceMobile secured 80-year rights to up to 45 MHz of lower mid-band L-band via the Ligado/Inmarsat settlement, and Globalstar holds the globally harmonized L/S-band that anchors Apple's Emergency SOS.
What breaks it
The failure modes are concrete. Feeder-link spectrum (V-band for AST's gateways, Ka for Gilat-fed sites) is finite and coordination-gated; a constellation can be flying and still dark if its gateways aren't licensed and built. Baseband is a single-vendor dependency — swapping a SkyEdge core mid-deployment is not a quarter-long project. And terrestrial D2D spectrum is the hardest constraint of all: AST needed an FCC order and a bankruptcy-court settlement to assemble its 45 MHz, and the FCC's April 21, 2026 commercial authorization for 248 satellites is what converts spectrum into a business. Comtech shows the downside of owning ground hardware without the balance sheet to fund it: it withdrew its going-concern warning in November 2025 but operates under covenants suspended until Jan 31, 2027, while its satellite & space segment shrank 31% to $50.6M in fiscal Q2 2026.
What forces the reprice
Three clocks. First, M&A is already repricing the spectrum layer: Amazon agreed to acquire Globalstar at $90/share, ~$11B equity value, with the controlling holder's written consent already delivered — GSAT now trades as a regulatory deal-arb, not a clean operating equity, with closing expected in 2027 pending antitrust, FDI and telecom approvals. Second, AST's deployment cadence: BlueBird 8/9/10 launch June 17, 2026 toward a 45–60-satellite year-end target, each launch a binary milestone. Third, ground-platform awards: every named SkyEdge IV or Wavestream order is hard, funded backlog that the market under-tracks versus the satellite headlines.
Be honest about size and earliness
This is the most revenue-real chokepoint in space, and that cuts both ways. Gilat is the only name here that is a clean, profitable merchant chokepoint owner — $451.7M FY2025 revenue, $53.2M adjusted EBITDA, guiding $500–520M for 2026 — but it is a small-cap whose share count and float make it volatile. Viasat and SES carry the ground assets but also the leverage: Viasat sits at $4.8B net debt, 3.1x, so the equity is a deleveraging story as much as a chokepoint story. AST's spectrum is genuinely scarce but the company booked only ~$70.9M of revenue in 2025 against a multi-billion deployment — this is option value, priced as such. Globalstar's standalone economics (~$70.1M Q1 2026 revenue) barely matter now that the price is an Amazon cash offer. And SES is fundamentally a satellite operator that happens to own a teleport network — its ground segment is a monetization lever, not its identity. Tier by funded backlog and shipped hardware, not by D2D TAM slides: Gilat ships gateways today; AST sells a spectrum-and-launch milestone story; Comtech is a turnaround you underwrite on solvency before strategy.
Who owns the choke
AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
The FCC granted AST commercial authority on April 21, 2026 to deploy 248 satellites for direct-to-device service using 700/800 MHz coordinated with Verizon, AT&T and FirstNet, with V-band (37.5-51.4 GHz) for gateway/feeder links. It secured 80-year rights to up to 45 MHz of lower mid-band L-band via the Ligado/Inmarsat settlement. 2025 revenue was ~$70.9M.
- Bull
- With FCC commercial authority for 248 satellites and 80-year rights to up to 45 MHz of scarce L-band, AST owns the hardest direct-to-device spectrum constraint.
- Bear
- Genuinely scarce spectrum is priced as option value against only ~$70.9M of 2025 revenue and a multi-billion-dollar deployment still ahead.
Comtech Telecommunications Corp.
Comtech makes satellite ground modems, troposcatter systems and ground infrastructure; its Satellite & Space segment fell 31% to $50.6M in fiscal Q2 2026 as it phased out low-margin VSAT/troposcatter contracts while ramping the Digital Common Ground 7000 software-defined modem. It withdrew its going-concern warning in November 2025 but operates under covenants suspended until Jan 31, 2027 on a $222M credit facility.
- Bull
- If the ground layer reprices, Comtech's pivot to the software-defined DCG 7000 modem could re-rate it as it sheds low-margin VSAT and troposcatter work.
- Bear
- Its Satellite & Space segment fell 31% to $50.6M, and the recently-withdrawn going-concern warning plus covenants suspended until 2027 make this a solvency-first turnaround.
Gilat Satellite Networks Ltd.
Gilat's SkyEdge IV virtualized, 5G-NTN-ready ground platform won a $40M award in June 2025 and a separate $42M operator order in October 2025; in February 2026 it received a $10M+ order for Wavestream Powerstream Ka amplifiers to support a leading LEO constellation's gateway sites. FY2025 revenue was $451.7M with $53.2M adjusted EBITDA.
- Bull
- If the ground layer is the most revenue-real choke, Gilat is its clean profitable merchant owner, with SkyEdge IV wins and $451.7M FY2025 revenue on $53.2M EBITDA.
- Bear
- Gilat is a volatile small-cap whose float and share count amplify swings, and its orders depend on operator capex cycles it does not control.
Globalstar, Inc.
Globalstar is Apple's D2D capacity operator and reported ~$70.1M Q1 2026 revenue (up 17%). On April 13, 2026 holders of ~57.6% of shares delivered written consent approving Amazon's acquisition at $90.00/share (~$11B equity value); the deal is expected to close in 2027 pending antitrust, FDI and telecom approvals, so no shareholder meeting will be held.
- Bull
- If D2D spectrum stays strategic, Globalstar is Apple's capacity operator, and Amazon's $90.00/share (~$11B) agreement already has controlling-holder written consent.
- Bear
- GSAT now trades as regulatory deal-arb, not a clean operating equity; closing slips to 2027 pending antitrust, FDI and telecom approvals that could fail.
SES S.A.
SES completed its Intelsat acquisition on July 17, 2025, creating an operator of ~120 GEO/MEO satellites with an extensive global ground network across C/Ku/Ka/X/UHF bands; management has identified ground-segment monetization as a new revenue source. SGBAF is the OTC line for SES S.A., a Luxembourg foreign private issuer.
- Bull
- If ground-segment monetization plays out, the SES-Intelsat combination runs ~120 satellites with an extensive multi-band global ground network now flagged for new revenue.
- Bear
- SES is fundamentally a satellite operator whose ground segment is a monetization lever, not its identity; exposure is via a thin OTC foreign-issuer line.
Viasat, Inc.
Viasat was selected by U.S. Space Force Space Systems Command for Phase 2 of the Enterprise Space Terminal program (May 13, 2025) to prototype an optical laser crosslink terminal for the MILNET mesh, having completed the Phase 1 Preliminary Design Review for its free-space optical space terminal.
- Bull
- If laser crosslinks and ground assets reprice, Viasat won Enterprise Space Terminal Phase 2 to prototype a MILNET optical terminal atop a global ground network.
- Bear
- Viasat carries heavy leverage, so the equity is a deleveraging story as much as a chokepoint story, with optical terminals still only at prototype stage.
Catalyst calendar
- 2026-06-17AST SpaceMobile BlueBird 8/9/10 launch on Falcon 9highEach launch is a binary deployment milestone toward the 45-60-satellite year-end target that converts AST's licensed D2D spectrum into actual ground-to-orbit coverage.
- 2026-08-10AST SpaceMobile Q2 2026 earningsmediumFirst print after the April FCC commercial authorization will show gateway buildout progress and whether spectrum-to-service execution is on schedule.
- 2026-08-12Viasat Q1 fiscal 2027 earningsmediumUpdates teleport/ground-network backlog and the deleveraging trajectory that gates whether the ground-asset chokepoint value reaches equity holders.
- 2026-08-13Gilat Satellite Networks Q2 2026 earningsmediumTests whether SkyEdge IV gateway/baseband bookings keep compounding against the $500-520M FY2026 guide - the cleanest read on funded ground-segment demand.