SpaceX slid 14% into its lock-up unlock after a first earnings report dominated by an $18.4B capex shock, dragging a broad space-sector risk-off, while Satellogic bucked it on Q2 results.

Satellogic was the rare green name, +7.3% to $4.82, on the back of its August 5 Q2 report — revenue expected up ~110% year over year as its vertically-integrated Earth-observation constellation scales high-cadence tasking (hundreds of points of interest per day, tasking-to-delivery under three hours). It sits at the geospatial-imagery choke, and the stock has run several-fold this year on that thesis; management still flags "touch and go" cash flow over the next few quarters, so this was a growth print rewarded on a day almost nothing else in the vertical was.

The story, though, was SpaceX, down −13.6% to $108.27 and amplified by its thin ~4.3% float. Its first-ever public earnings landed with revenue of $7.8B (up ~90%) and a narrower-than-expected loss, but the tape fixated on a 557% jump in Q2 capex to $18.4B — roughly $15.8B of it AI infrastructure — set against Starlink ARPU compression (down about a third versus 2023 as Amazon's Leo competes) and Starship setbacks including a July 16 abort and a booster loss on landing. Hanging over all of it: a staggered IPO lock-up that begins releasing an enormous pre-IPO block (~911.5M shares, ~$116B) this month. SpaceX touches the launch, propulsion, optical-terminal, and space-solar chokepoints at once, so its de-rate set the whole vertical's risk tone.

And the tone was uniformly risk-off. The timing-and-components layer sold hard — SiTime −6.9% to $543.12 at the precision-oscillator choke, Microchip −3.6% — as did the satellite-connectivity names: Telesat −6.3%, Viasat −6.0%, AST SpaceMobile −2.7%, and Spire −4.3% at the space-data choke. IonQ (−4.3%) and Mercury Systems (−4.8%) leaked with them. The green was defensive and specific: Karman +2.1%, Comtech +1.8%, Boeing +1.3%, Northrop +1.1%, and Rocket Lab +0.5% ahead of its own print. This was a beta unwind around the sector's new anchor stock, not a fundamental repricing of the launch or EO choke.

The calendar is unusually loaded. BlackSky and Rocket Lab both report Q2 today, with CACI's fiscal Q4 and Microchip's Q1 on August 7, AST SpaceMobile August 10, and Redwire, Viasat, and Gilat mid-month. The SpaceX-specific dates now drive the vertical: its first post-IPO quarterly print is expected around August 20, the first lock-up tranche releases roughly August 21, and full expiry lands December 9 — the supply overhang that will govern SPCX until then. Watch the August 15 Northrop/DARPA RSGS servicing-vehicle launch as the on-orbit-servicing read.